Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $516,862$ on 2020-08-03
Best fit exponential: \(2.36 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{760,641.6}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 128.1)}}\) (asimptote \(760,641.6\))
Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $8,539$ on 2020-08-03
Best fit exponential: \(93 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{24,259.4}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 136.3)}}\) (asimptote \(24,259.4\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $150,286$ on 2020-08-03
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $5,240$ on 2020-08-03
Best fit exponential: \(806 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(45.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,128.0}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 67.5)}}\) (asimptote \(5,128.0\))
Start date 2020-04-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $59$ on 2020-08-03
Best fit exponential: \(8.19 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(36.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{57.8}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 57.7)}}\) (asimptote \(57.8\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $153$ on 2020-08-03
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $4,821$ on 2020-08-03
Best fit exponential: \(181 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,144.0}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 109.9)}}\) (asimptote \(5,144.0\))
Start date 2020-04-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $83$ on 2020-08-03
Best fit exponential: \(5.16 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(26.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{74.9}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 70.0)}}\) (asimptote \(74.9\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $2,556$ on 2020-08-03
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $94,640$ on 2020-08-03
Best fit exponential: \(4.67 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{101,095.0}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 97.0)}}\) (asimptote \(101,095.0\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $4,888$ on 2020-08-03
Best fit exponential: \(204 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,007.9}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 102.6)}}\) (asimptote \(6,007.9\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $45,686$ on 2020-08-03
Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $2,583$ on 2020-08-03
Best fit exponential: \(67 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,057.9}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 123.1)}}\) (asimptote \(4,057.9\))
Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $25$ on 2020-08-03
Best fit exponential: \(0.819 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(26.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{29.7}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 103.6)}}\) (asimptote \(29.7\))
Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $647$ on 2020-08-03
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $9,133$ on 2020-08-03
Best fit exponential: \(634 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,427.0}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 86.9)}}\) (asimptote \(9,427.0\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $215$ on 2020-08-03
Best fit exponential: \(19.9 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(36.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{256.4}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 91.4)}}\) (asimptote \(256.4\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $1,494$ on 2020-08-03
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $6,382$ on 2020-08-03
Best fit exponential: \(212 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,295.0}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 87.6)}}\) (asimptote \(6,295.0\))
Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $157$ on 2020-08-03
Best fit exponential: \(10.1 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{153.4}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 76.3)}}\) (asimptote \(153.4\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $1,051$ on 2020-08-03
Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $31,972$ on 2020-08-03
Best fit exponential: \(1.41 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(31.5\) days)
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,239$ on 2020-08-03
Best fit exponential: \(224 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(53.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,335.3}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 75.5)}}\) (asimptote \(1,335.3\))
Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $8,832$ on 2020-08-03
